STATISTICAL PERFORMANCE
Hyperbolic 1 Indicator (Beta Version)
The following section will detail the statistical results produced by the Hyperbolic 1 indicator across a collection of markets and timeframes. We selected a somewhat scattered basket of markets and varied range of time frames to illustrate a wide sampling of performance statistics. The results listed below were derived from the Atomic Trading indicator available on Bloomberg Financial. This indicator has been available on Bloomberg for the past 2 years in varying form, as it has been upgraded over time to produce better results.
The graphic interface shown below displays a full range of selectable trading statistics (not all visible here) available for any market on any time frame that the user would like to backtest or trade. This toolset is available as a standalone application through our website, without requiring a Bloomberg subscription to access and use it. We are current developing further software partnerships to deliver this App through different interfaces, such as Market Analyst, allowing different functions to be integrated with our technology, such as automated trading, or further programming capability.
The algorithm presented in this course will produce better results than those displayed below, as some improvements have been made while reprogramming it as a standalone App. It now produces higher returns than the older version available through Bloomberg, tough the statistics below still provide an excellent example of the general functionality and output results produced by Hyperbolic 1 as programmed in our proprietary application. Hyperbolic 13 and Circular 13 will all be available through the same App.
Statistical Results  Hyperbolic 1 (Beta Version)
Across 15 Markets in Varied Time Frames (6 Equities, 3 Indexes, 3 Currencies, 2 Commodities)
KEY POINT: Our programmed app allows for rigorous backtesting, full statistical analysis and strategic risk assessment to determine the highest yield trading opportunities in all markets across all time frames!
 These statistical results are calculated from a NONLEVERAGED account!
 Each backtest is based upon a starting account value of 100k, trading the full amount, nonleveraged, on each trade, and adding the profit/loss after each trade for the following trade!
 The total number of trades does not always match the sum of winning and losing trades because consecutive trades in the same direction are considered one trade, while in the total trades they are counted separately!
Leveraged Returns Analysis  Hyperbolic 1 (Beta Version)
The following analysis and study of these variations is provided to help traders better understand the results of using different degrees of leverage when trading the Hyperbolic 1 algorithm.
The primary factors required to determine the viability and degree of leveraging are the number of consecutive losses, or Loss Run, and the Maximum % Drawdown variables shown in the far right columns of the statistical table on Page 102. As will be seen below, the smaller the Maximum % Drawdown, the higher the leverage possible, and the larger the % Drawdown, the less desirable it is to leverage the system. With this in mind, it is prudent to backtest longer data sets in order to determine probable drawdowns over extended periods.
We will give examples of three of cases below, the first showing a small maximum % drawdown (0.84%) in the USDJPY, then a midrange drawdown (3.99%) with Google, and an extremely high drawdown (25.64%) in Facebook. It will be seen with the Facebook example that leveraging the account above 2x wiped out the entire account, exactly the situation we most want to avoid.
The table shows a sample of 5 markets from Appendix 1, along with the results of trading them for the defined backtest period using a 2x, 5x, and 10x leverage factor. We will illustrate the 3 cases mentioned above just to show the potential positive and negative results which can occur using these various levels of leverage with the Hyperbolic 1 algorithm. A final point is that there are other ways to take advantage of leverage besides using a margin account, such as using various options strategies which can serve to leverage returns while limiting risk to predefined levels.
Statistical Results  Hyperbolic 1 (not Beta) Indicator
Following are some of the first test statistics run on the new Excel version of the Hyperbolic 1, the first presentation of nonbeta results from the new version of the Hyperbolic 1 indicator. This first testing was done only on daily and hourly time frames, but the first results, particular for these higher time frames are excellent!
As expected the Hyperbolic produces about an average of 45% per month UNLEVERAGED return! What's interesting is that on the same data set in the same time frame, the Circular 1 and Hyperbolic 1 seem to produce about the same returns. However, the BIG difference is that the Hyperbolic 1 produces the SAME return with only about 1/3 the number of trades! So it saves significantly on the amount of trading effort and commission costs. However, with further testing, this might not be the case in all markets and time frames.
Here are the results of the first 5 tests on some popular stocks using only 1 hour or daily time frames:
GE US Daily 1 Month  11.8% Unleveraged
Leverage 3  36%
Leverage 5  61%
Leverage 10  127%
IBM US 60MIN 3 Months  11.2% Unleveraged
Leverage 3  36.2%
Leverage 5  65%
Leverage 10  156%
CAT US 60 MIN 3 Weeks  3.1% Unleveraged
Leverage 3  9.4%
Leverage 5  15.5%
Leverage 10  31%
BAC US 30 MIN 2 Weeks  1.8% Unleveraged
Leverage 3  5.4%
Leverage 5  9 %
Leverage 10  18%
MSFT US Daily 3 Months  5%
Leverage 3  15.7%
Leverage 5  26%
Leverage 10  53%
